Several FTA project-evaluation measures rely on travel forecasts prepared by sponsors of proposed New Starts and Small Starts projects. In its reviews to ensure their usefulness in project evaluation, FTA considers five aspects of the forecasts:
Project sponsors may choose among three different approaches to prepare ridership forecasts:
The first two options depend entirely on local efforts both to develop the forecasting methods and to prepare the forecasts. Consequently, for these options, FTA’s review will consider all five aspects of the forecasts. The third option relies on the product of FTA efforts to develop a forecasting method. Consequently, for this option, FTA’s review needs to consider only the last two aspects of forecasts.
To provide sufficient time for these reviews and any follow-up with project sponsors, FTA has established timelines for submittal of travel forecasting information.